Dollar-hryvnia. What to expect in 2021?
The dollar against the hryvnia has remained fairly stable over the past two months. According to the NBU, this figure on the interbank market ranged from UAH 27.7373 to UAH 28.5583 per dollar. The dollar exchange rate on the black market of the Kharkov currency ranged from 27.8208 / 27.9354 to 28.3783 / 28.7227 hryvnia per dollar. According to the NBU's comments, the national currency proved to be resistant to the crisis caused by the coronavirus, due to the fact that, firstly, Ukrainian exports have practically not been affected recently - the demand for Ukrainian metal and grain remained consistently high, which, in turn, ensured stable foreign exchange earnings to Ukraine. And secondly, imports have dropped significantly.
In addition, the ratio of two more factors is of interest:
- The Ukrainian hryvnia continues to be supported by revenues from labor migration. In August and September 2020, migrant workers sent more currency to Ukraine than in the same period in 2019.
- Due to the coronavirus, the costs of Ukrainians for traveling abroad have been greatly reduced, thereby causing a decrease in demand for currency, including the dollar.
What do the experts think?
Until the end of January, experts also see no reason for a sharp change in the course. But what can we expect in the future?
Today the dollar rate in Ukraine is 28.1648 hryvnia per dollar. It seems to be the same boundaries. However, the dollar has grown slightly over the past week. Its cost on January 18 was 28.0524 hryvnia per dollar. And the expectations of foreign exchange market experts are such that by the end of the month the Ukrainian hryvnia will weaken even more against the dollar - to a value of 28.2.
But different experts differ in their assessments. hryvnia rate against the dollar. Thus, Bank of America specialists expect the Ukrainian hryvnia to strengthen to UAH 26-26.5 / USD in the first quarter of 2021. According to their estimates, this will happen against the backdrop of a return of investor interest in domestic government bonds (OVDPs). And the main factors that influenced this can be called:
- successful cooperation of Ukraine with the International Monetary Fund;
- general optimism in international markets. If the expectations from the coronavirus vaccination have begun are met, then this could further spur the global economy. And then we can expect that prices for the main items of Ukrainian exports will continue to grow.
How much is a dollar?
Another factor that seriously affects the formation of the dollar-hryvnia relationship is the position of the American dollar itself in relation to the basket of currencies. Fiscal policy during the Trump presidency was aimed at weakening its own currency. Such a weakening was supposed to revive the national economy. Judging by the plan presented by Presidents Biden, the recovery of the American economy will continue to occur due to the weakening of the US dollar. This means that the hryvnia will at least maintain its position against the dollar.
Still, what to expect?
The hryvnia in November 2020 has already shown a strengthening trend. And if experts are not mistaken in their assessments, and no “black swans” in the form of deep economic or political crises will affect the state of the foreign exchange market, then by the end of the year the hryvnia may well reach the indicator of 24 hryvnia per dollar, although the budget has an indicator of 29 ,one. This conclusion can be drawn from the comment of the head of "EXANTE Ukraine" Vladimir Pozniy.
Of course, one should not forget that there are also seasonal fluctuations in currencies. At these moments, the Ukrainian hryvnia may reach its peak performance against the dollar. However, this situation, as a rule, does not last long.
But the president of the Ukrainian Analytical Center, Oleksandr Okhrimenko, is more cautious in his forecasts. According to him, the lockdown and the overall situation with coronavirus will have a strong impact on the stability of the national currency. He agrees that the devaluation of the hryvnia is normal for the beginning of the year. But what will happen next is difficult to predict. And according to his conservative estimates, in the absence of serious shocks, by the end of the year the hryvnia will still reach the level of 29 hryvnia per dollar. If there are shocks, then the rate may be higher than UAH 30 per dollar.
And what does the NBU promise us?
It is necessary to take into account the latest changes in the regulation of the foreign exchange market in Ukraine, introduced by the Resolution of the NBU No. 3 of January 15. By this resolution, the National Bank lifted many restrictions that existed until now on the Ukrainian currency market. These changes are aimed at reducing the "overregulation" of currency relations, and in the future, to strengthen the hryvnia.
For example, now banks and financial institutions can buy currency from individuals not only for cash, but also for non-cash hryvnia. From January 17, 2021, anyone can transfer dollars to hryvnia at bank terminals with the transfer of the equivalent in hryvnia to the client's account.
It is certainly convenient. But what if you need cash hryvnia? The answer is obvious - contact us. In the Bastrate exchanger, you can sell a dollar or convert hryvnia into dollars. But in order to find out the dollar exchange rate in the exchange offices of Kharkov, you do not need to run around with the slogan “how much is the dollar” all over the city. On our website you can always find out the “dollar exchange rate for today in Ukraine”, as well as find other useful and relevant information.
Also, the NBU lifted the ban for individuals to conduct foreign exchange transactions on a "forward" basis - this is when a client can fix the rate of a future transaction to reduce their financial risks.
We are one step ahead of the regulator and have long since introduced the “Fix the Course” service for our clients. You just need to call us and fix the dollar rate, and you can buy a dollar or sell a dollar exactly at this rate. And do not be afraid of the volatility of the Kharkov currency market.
Whatever changes await us this year, the demand for currency exchange will continue to exist. In our exchange office there is always the best dollar exchange rate in Kharkov.
We work seven days a week from 8:00 to 20:00.